As I began writing the article that I've been assembling for the better part of a month, I realized that it was far too large to fit into one or even two semi-cognizant posts. This new topic carries so much importance for our society that I think it deserves its own category. Normally, I'd file it under my more than commonplace politi-drivel.

What topic is this, you ask? Scientists of all fields have been trepidly reporting for over thirty years on a phenomenon known as Peak Oil or Hubbert's Peak: a mathematical model of the Malthusian variety which, when applied to current data, predicts the end of cheap energy in the form of oil within the range of years from 2004-2016, well within the lifespan of everyone reading this article.

Such a "Chicken Little" prediction is likely to seem dubious to rational people. When I first heard of this theory I was shocked too, but as I examined the issue more closely I started to see that not only was such a scenario possible, the arguments were arranged so plausibly that the end of cheap oil, barring some deus ex machina, was mathematically inevitable within the next 30-40 years using some optimistic estimates.

Here are some preliminary facts which point to an impending decline in world oil productions:

• It takes an average of thirty years from the time new oil is discovered to the time it is ready to be used, simply put, production lags discovery by about thirty years.
• Several discovery peaks have already come and gone, in this country and others. This country's production peak arrived right on schedule according to Hubbert's mathematics in 1970 and a political and economic tremor could be felt then.
• The Earth is an open system, and receives energy on a consistent basis from the fusion energy of the sun. This energy is not going anywhere.
• Oil on the other hand is a concentration of solar energy in the form of decaying organic matter which, over a lengthy span of geological time, was converted to a form which was very easy to convert back into usable free energy.
• While this energy was formed over millions of years, it has taken industrial society little over a hundred years to almost completely exhaust this resource. The oil economy will end, the questions remains when and how.
• Extracting energy from oil, drilling, transporting, refining, etc. all takes energy. When oil production first began in the early 20'th century, a company could produce an average of fifty barrels with the energy in one barrel of oil. Despite numerous technological advances in the efficiency of this process, this ratio is down to five barrels produced to one barrel consumed. When this ratio reaches one to one, companies have no reason to continue drilling oil, every barrel produced is one they have to expend, the companies break even and though there could be 20 years of oil in the ground, it will become so scarce and expensive that it might as well be dry.
• Oil companies are currently only finding one barrel of oil for every five barrels they are producing. World discovery peaked for all practical purposes roughly thirty years ago, the same time that U.S. oil production was going into decline. Give or take ten years, and the world is sitting atop Hubbert's peak right now.

Dr. Colin Campbell of Oxford University provides a graph which illustrates the growing gap between discovery and production better than my words ever could.

While there are likely few issues on which Michael Moore and George W. Bush agree, this is one of them. President Bush is quoted as stating,

"What people need to hear loud and clear is that we're running out of energy in America."

At the same time, the third chapter of Michael Moore's latest book, "Dude, Where's My Country?" is entitled "Oil's Well that Ends Well" and describes possible scenarios for life after the peak.

While this all sounds more than a tad pessimistic, I honestly think that a solution lies within our grasp as a civilization. Any solution will require an unprecedented level of cooperation and restructuring in a relatively short period of time. In the coming articles I plan to review various solutions, their strengths, shortcomings, and the sacrifices we will all have to make to sustain our society.

After all, to consider the alternatives to cooperation is to entertain the unthinkable.

[/peakoil]permalink